Arab Fall

After the much ballyhooed Arab spring it might be time for a recap. In doing so we will not be that pleased with the results. The only country the West can feel good about, really, is the one we had the least impact on. Tunesia which first deposed their dictator and gave birth to the movement and has since had free elections appears to be making progress toward a more democratic and certainly less totalitarian form of government.

The rest of the news is not great. While Libya had deposed Khadaffi they have a very long road ahead of them to determine their future. Libya does have oil and lots of it so they will be watched by the West but if we think that because NATO planes helped them achieve their goal that we will see a pro Western government we may be in for a big surprise.

The United States does not have clean hands in Bahrain as they or Saudi Arabia certainly seemed to prop up the ruling elite. In Yemen the President was severely injured in a bombing of the palace but after leaving the country for months has returned and appears to have a grip on power.

Egypt which deposed Mubarek in the spring has been ruled by the army since then. Open Parlimentary elections are promised but there appears to be some doubt as to if those elected will retain full power from the Military. In short Egyptians might have to do it all over again. The fact that over 20 people were killed last weekend in protests should make clear that there is no sure end in this.

In Syria Assad has held onto power but at great cost. Hundreds, more likely thousands have been killed. This has been covered by the West but Assad has limited pressure simply by not allowing Western journalists into the country. The country teeters close to a civil war.

And then there is Iran which we are told are closer and closer to gaining nuclear weapons. If they do the United States and Israel will be faced with a difficult choice. Having the bomb could lead to other countries needing it and pressing the United States for help. Can you not envision the Saudi's telling us that to keep the oil flowing to the West they would feel the need for a bomb to protect themselves from the Iranians.

The U S gives more aid to Egypt than any other country. We need to be tougher. I believe that all countries act in their own best interest but all countries also respect power. We need to wield more. To me if the Saudi's really fear Iran we should tell them we will protect them for free oil or at least oil sold well below the cost paid by countries that do nothing to help them. Look everybody knows we our in the Middle East to protect our oil but we dress it up in prettier things. We should just get something for our cost in blood and treasure.

What happens in the Middle East is up in the air. Our positions can be much better however. First and foremost we need to be like every other country. We do that by putting our interests first. Countries do not succeed by being altruistic.