Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Donald Trump and others have all announced that they will not be seeking the nomination for the Presidency.
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman are running. The name recognition of any of these candidates is low.
It is assumed that Obama should be a slam dunk but I do not think it is a guarentee. Bush the elder had higher poll numbers and scared off the top tier challengers opening the door for Bill Clinton.
In the end it will come down to the economy and the energy of the electorate. Just a few states will determine the story, the upper midwest and the southwest are considered the swing states as the South is strongly Red and the Northeast and West are strong blue. So despite national polls it really comes down to energy in states like Ohio and Michigan.
Obama's labor policies will not gain him any friends. He is invisible and while it is true few labor partisons should vote Republican they may not vote at all.
Romney has in the end cut too many jobs. He will be ripped apart in the desolate economy parts of the country. Gingrich is a joke. So it comes down to Pawlenty and Huntsman. Shockingly I think Huntsman could be the best candidate but he is going to have trouble out of the gate . Republicans need a late candidate and they might get it but it might be too soon. Jeb Bush would walk away with the nomination but is it too soon. My guess is he might get in. That would set up a pretty epic battle.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Checking in on the Governor
Paul Lepage has been quiet the last couple of months. He took a well timed vacation and has been muzzled a bit in recent weeks. Of course he occasionally speaks which can never be a good thing. He got his insurance plan through which will inevitably help the healthy and secure and hurt those that need insurance most and have the fewest options. All in the name of competition of course. He informed us that he values people over eagles. I do too, most people do. The thing with LePage is that he is already a caricatire of himself. He is Dan Quayle in Maine.
The Republicans themselves seem a bit distressed with is agenda and his harsh measures. Of course the corruption and problems in his administration seem a bit extreme for being so early in his term but I am willing to give him a pass for that. Could the vetting be better, of course, but when you have an extreme agenda you will bring in extreme people who by rule will be more of a lightning rod.
The issue for me is can we withstand the next two years of Lepage before hopefully a modifying of the legistlature can take place giving him less of an ability to wreck havoc. The next question is of course when Cutler takes him on in a few years if the Democrats will again sport a candidate which will with Cutler put LePage back in. That is the only way he can get elected again.
The Republicans themselves seem a bit distressed with is agenda and his harsh measures. Of course the corruption and problems in his administration seem a bit extreme for being so early in his term but I am willing to give him a pass for that. Could the vetting be better, of course, but when you have an extreme agenda you will bring in extreme people who by rule will be more of a lightning rod.
The issue for me is can we withstand the next two years of Lepage before hopefully a modifying of the legistlature can take place giving him less of an ability to wreck havoc. The next question is of course when Cutler takes him on in a few years if the Democrats will again sport a candidate which will with Cutler put LePage back in. That is the only way he can get elected again.
The End of the Soap Opera
I do not know what it says about our culture that with a thousand televsion channels that the major networks are all cutting soap operas out of the schedule. This is not a life shattering problem but it does signify an end ....to something.
I grew up in the heyday of soaps. I can remember coming home from kindergarten after a half day ...and sitting down to eat my chicken noodle soup while my Mom watched Love of Life. When I was in high school the girls in our group watched Guiding Light and I can still tell you the plot lines of Phillip, Beth, Mindy and Rick. I remember the Fourth of July episodes and one always wanted to be at the Bauer barbecue. These shows reflected the culture, and the cultural changes, sometimes following, sometimes leading.
My mother, in her eighties, has found the death of the soap operas disheartening. Nearly blind she more listened than watched but she did value the shows. I have to wonder how it feels to have shows you watched for fifty years end with the explanation there is no market anymore.
These shows are just shows and if any show is worth getting upset over is a question that I cannot answer. I do know that I feel the passing with a tug of nostalgia as well. The soap operas featured commercials which are in the brain forever. Do you remember the Ancient Chinese secret, The quicker picker upper, and Ivory snow. I can still remember the commercials.
In the last couple of years we have let go of the Bauer, Lewis and Spaulding families on GL and the Hughes family on ATWT. ABC fans will have the same loss later this year. It is a passing that I regret.
I grew up in the heyday of soaps. I can remember coming home from kindergarten after a half day ...and sitting down to eat my chicken noodle soup while my Mom watched Love of Life. When I was in high school the girls in our group watched Guiding Light and I can still tell you the plot lines of Phillip, Beth, Mindy and Rick. I remember the Fourth of July episodes and one always wanted to be at the Bauer barbecue. These shows reflected the culture, and the cultural changes, sometimes following, sometimes leading.
My mother, in her eighties, has found the death of the soap operas disheartening. Nearly blind she more listened than watched but she did value the shows. I have to wonder how it feels to have shows you watched for fifty years end with the explanation there is no market anymore.
These shows are just shows and if any show is worth getting upset over is a question that I cannot answer. I do know that I feel the passing with a tug of nostalgia as well. The soap operas featured commercials which are in the brain forever. Do you remember the Ancient Chinese secret, The quicker picker upper, and Ivory snow. I can still remember the commercials.
In the last couple of years we have let go of the Bauer, Lewis and Spaulding families on GL and the Hughes family on ATWT. ABC fans will have the same loss later this year. It is a passing that I regret.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Hide and Seek in Pakistan
So what do billions of dollars a year in aid to Pakistan buy you? Apparently not much. We know that in the past Osama was tipped off such as in Tora Bora years ago so in this instance we chose not to inform them of our intentions to take out Osama. We realize that without this precaution Osama would still be making mischief in the world.
I read an article the other day speaking about the division of India and Pakistan after World War II. The United States has invested into the trillions over the years since then. Originally we felt that India was spinning into the orbit of the Russians so we bought into the idea of Pakistan as an ally or bulwark against the communists.
This policy is outdated. The people in the country rarely see our largesse as corruption siphons off most of the money to the military. In fact most Pakistani's do not even know the United States has and continues to prop up thier economy.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are ungovernalbe and we buy nothing but hatred with our discontent. We need to get out now. The amount of money spent on these wars would fix every domestic problem in the United States for the next fifty years. Of course oil companies and military wares providers might not get rich off that spending.
Now Obama says we will spend hundreds of billions to prop up Egypt and Tunesia. Perhaps we should wait and see what type of governments take hold their before we write that check.
I read an article the other day speaking about the division of India and Pakistan after World War II. The United States has invested into the trillions over the years since then. Originally we felt that India was spinning into the orbit of the Russians so we bought into the idea of Pakistan as an ally or bulwark against the communists.
This policy is outdated. The people in the country rarely see our largesse as corruption siphons off most of the money to the military. In fact most Pakistani's do not even know the United States has and continues to prop up thier economy.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are ungovernalbe and we buy nothing but hatred with our discontent. We need to get out now. The amount of money spent on these wars would fix every domestic problem in the United States for the next fifty years. Of course oil companies and military wares providers might not get rich off that spending.
Now Obama says we will spend hundreds of billions to prop up Egypt and Tunesia. Perhaps we should wait and see what type of governments take hold their before we write that check.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Goodbye Osama
Osama Bin Laden is dead. Except for a few Fox anchors whose, perhaps Freudian slips, trouble speaking of Osama and Obama in the same sentence without malfunctioning were laughable and career threatening, most Americans feel a sense of relief and justice with the death of this man.
Almost ten years after the 9/11 Terrorist attacks Bin Laden was caught by Navy Seals who as David Letterman said Monday " fired a warning shot into his eye." Perhaps the Seals were instructed to bring him in alive if possible but no one can doubt that his being killed was the best result. A circus trial over the next few years would have done nothing to help America and would have bettered the chances of Osama becoming more of a martyr than he already is.
Football player Rasheed Mendenhall has got himself into a little hot water by questioning Americans celebrating in the streets as the news of Bin Laden's death leaked. The loss that the victims of 9/11 families felt can never be overestimated, the loss of security that most Americans felt prior to 9/11 affected us all. However I myself had some of the same concerns when I witnessed these things.
When Americans are hurt or injured, captured or killed in foreign countries we are inevitably witness to the crowds cheering and chanting and celebrating. For me personally it makes me feel like they are savages and certainly makes it nearly impossible to see what potential grievances they have against the United States or the Western world in anything but a lesser light.
So I would question whether Muslims in good faith, and we must understand that there are many many more who are inclined to be generous in feeling to the West than not so, felt about Americans celebrating in the street and waving flags about the death of Osama. I suspect most of them knew that Bin Laden committed reprehensible acts and had done nothing to really advance the betterment of the Islamic people. Still we must understand how much impact visual imagery has. For those inclined to accept that Osama got what he deserved the visual of Americans can do nothing but perhaps inflame a dislike of Westerners they did not feel.
Think back to when OJ Simpson was found not guilty. How many white people do you know who were happy. Contrast that with the visuals we saw of groups of African Americans watching the verdict happy and celebrating. How do you think that made the white people feel. Images have impacts and sometimes the impacts can trigger emotions that somber rational thought would not.
I told my son that I was glad that we got him. I thought that any sense of peace it gave the victims families was a good thing. Mendenhall however is correct as well. My Bible has Jesus saying to love thy neighbor, to love thy enemy, and to turn the other cheek. But most of all it says judge not lest ye be judged. God also says that there is punishment on Earth and there is punishment in heaven and they are not the same thing. So if Osama was punished on Earth so be it, if he is punished in the afterlife that is up to God. I do not think God ever wants us to hate. Time and time again says that you cannot ask God to forgive your sins if you will not forgive others their sins. This is a repeated message. It does not say some sins or most sins. It says to forgive the sins or you yourself are risking ruin.
Osama will be judged by God. I told my son if it were up to me if people felt a sense of divine justice in his death I could accept that. The men who accomomplished that mission were heroic and brave. I myself like to think of it like a football player who scores a touchdown. Give the ball to the ref, shake your teammates hand for a mission accomplished and move on. I am not a fan of spiking the ball and I do not think Americans present a positive image by dancing in the end zone. Perhaps a somber reflection on the destruction he wrought would be a better choice.
Almost ten years after the 9/11 Terrorist attacks Bin Laden was caught by Navy Seals who as David Letterman said Monday " fired a warning shot into his eye." Perhaps the Seals were instructed to bring him in alive if possible but no one can doubt that his being killed was the best result. A circus trial over the next few years would have done nothing to help America and would have bettered the chances of Osama becoming more of a martyr than he already is.
Football player Rasheed Mendenhall has got himself into a little hot water by questioning Americans celebrating in the streets as the news of Bin Laden's death leaked. The loss that the victims of 9/11 families felt can never be overestimated, the loss of security that most Americans felt prior to 9/11 affected us all. However I myself had some of the same concerns when I witnessed these things.
When Americans are hurt or injured, captured or killed in foreign countries we are inevitably witness to the crowds cheering and chanting and celebrating. For me personally it makes me feel like they are savages and certainly makes it nearly impossible to see what potential grievances they have against the United States or the Western world in anything but a lesser light.
So I would question whether Muslims in good faith, and we must understand that there are many many more who are inclined to be generous in feeling to the West than not so, felt about Americans celebrating in the street and waving flags about the death of Osama. I suspect most of them knew that Bin Laden committed reprehensible acts and had done nothing to really advance the betterment of the Islamic people. Still we must understand how much impact visual imagery has. For those inclined to accept that Osama got what he deserved the visual of Americans can do nothing but perhaps inflame a dislike of Westerners they did not feel.
Think back to when OJ Simpson was found not guilty. How many white people do you know who were happy. Contrast that with the visuals we saw of groups of African Americans watching the verdict happy and celebrating. How do you think that made the white people feel. Images have impacts and sometimes the impacts can trigger emotions that somber rational thought would not.
I told my son that I was glad that we got him. I thought that any sense of peace it gave the victims families was a good thing. Mendenhall however is correct as well. My Bible has Jesus saying to love thy neighbor, to love thy enemy, and to turn the other cheek. But most of all it says judge not lest ye be judged. God also says that there is punishment on Earth and there is punishment in heaven and they are not the same thing. So if Osama was punished on Earth so be it, if he is punished in the afterlife that is up to God. I do not think God ever wants us to hate. Time and time again says that you cannot ask God to forgive your sins if you will not forgive others their sins. This is a repeated message. It does not say some sins or most sins. It says to forgive the sins or you yourself are risking ruin.
Osama will be judged by God. I told my son if it were up to me if people felt a sense of divine justice in his death I could accept that. The men who accomomplished that mission were heroic and brave. I myself like to think of it like a football player who scores a touchdown. Give the ball to the ref, shake your teammates hand for a mission accomplished and move on. I am not a fan of spiking the ball and I do not think Americans present a positive image by dancing in the end zone. Perhaps a somber reflection on the destruction he wrought would be a better choice.
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