Buy This Product : Ear Vac

I saw an advertisement this morning for something called Earvac. The commercial makes you laugh. Some poor sap shouts OW while he pokes his ear drum with a Q Tip even though he has been told not to use one to clean his ear.

Instead use the ear vac. It is just what it sounds like, a small vacuum you place in your ear to gently suck up dirt and wax. I don't know. What if you turned it on too hard and it sucked up some of your brains. Actually knowing about this product and with some of the news stories we see everyday it seems that we all know a few people who might have already purchased one and turned them up to high.

Seriously an ear vacuum?

Thoughts on Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy, even though it was subtropical by the time it came ashore in New Jersey the storm has been devastating. Looking at the pictures of the Jersey shore, a neighborhood in Queens destroyed by fire, and the infrastructure in New York it is easy to see that this storm will go down in history.

A few thoughts and observations on the storm.


- Those filling right wing sites stating that the storm is Gods wrath for America's choices on social issues such as abortion and gay rights might need to ask themselves if that means that when tornadoes strike Gods country across the south and the plains if it is still Gods wrath. I am Christian and I believe God can do what he wants, I do not believe God would create storms that would harm the good and bad indiscriminately to seek his revenge.

- Chris Christie, if my state was suffering through some kind of crisis, is the Governor I want. The man is no nonsense and you cannot but know that everything he says, every emotion and sadness he expresses in these situations is genuine. One wonders, conversely where Andrew Cuomo is in New York or if Mayor Bloomberg is crowding him out of the picture.

-For Springsteen fans many had to recognize the irony of the man who sings about the Jersey shore in many of his songs having written almost forty years ago at the beginning of his career specifically wrote a song called " Fourth of July (Sandy) " about the shore and the carnival. That the storm that destroyed much of the shore was named Sandy is an oddity at the minimum.

-Who are these people who do not evacuate and thus put others in danger to have to come rescue them? Also who are the morons we see that are in the water, surfing, jet skiing etc as the storm comes ashore. If a first responder dies rescuing you after you have done something foolish how do you live with that?

-I read a book recently about prediction and it spoke of the great improvement in weather prediction over the last twenty years. Forecasters nailed this one, the amount of time available for preparation and evacuation is life saving. Even more significant to me is that we heard about the potential for this storm being a " superstorm" more than a week ahead while it was still a tropical depression in the Caribbean. You might believe in the blind squirrel nut theory but these forecasts were spot on from the beginning.

So This Is Interesting, Mustache Wars

This morning on Morning Joe, David Axelrod one of the most important Obama campaign operatives was visiting with the group. As they talked about the coming election it came to pass that Axelrod and Scarborough made a bet of sorts.

If Obama does not win Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania Axelrod promised to come on the show and shave his mustache that he has had forty years. In return if the President wins either North Carolina or Florida Scarborough promised to grow a mustache.

This should be fun.

What Would President Romney Do

New York Times writer David Brooks appeared on Morning Joe this morning and spoke about a subject that I have been a bit repetitive about. That is, what is the likelihood of Mitt Romney being a successful President.

Of course this assumes his election which is at least a fifty fifty possibility. Assuming this happens we have many questions to ask. First and foremost is what does Mitt Romney believe. The truth is, and I do not say this in a disparaging way just as what seems to be fact, we just do not know.

To be a successful President the strange thing is this ability to be pragmatic might not be the worst thing in the world. It could, and I say could, make for a President who is very inconsistent, dependent on whoever has his ear at any given time. This seems unlikely however, I think a President Romney having reached his goal would, at least in the first two years be able, perhaps uniquely able to accomplish big things.

Brooks, in agreement with me this morning, stated that as the tea party has cost the party ownership of the Senate Republicans will be much more willing to work with a President Romney than a President Obama and that with the Senate in the hands of the Democrats any successful legislation will have to have a buy in from the left.

In a way saying that only Romney can get something done is rewarding the right for being so intransigent with President Obama. It is, in a sense, like saying " that is Manny being Manny." As in they will not accept plans from Obama because they want a Republican President but they will accept virtually the same ideas from a Republican, even a shape shifter like Mitt Romney.

I am not entirely comfortable with that. It is however I think the likely fact. Of course Romney could gain office and play to the right. If he does so the country will be in peril as we are approaching a time where if we do not work together we will go down together. For this reason and based on his history of pragmatism there is no question that Romney has a better chance of putting a big program of reform through than does the President.

This also, by the way, is why Democrats suffer as President. There are some, in fact quite a few powerful Senators, who are totally fine with being the titular head of their party and know that divided government makes their power increase exponentially.

If President Romney were to win perhaps the best thing the Dems could do would be to nominate a new Majority leader to get a fresh start as well.

Chris Christie in a Crisis

I have long said that I did not think Chris Christie could be a successful National candidate because of his bigger than life persona. That is not a knock on his size, I think those jokes are silly and mean, but because he is such a full personality the chance of him not having some kind of public glitch is small. Outside of that and in a great example of the split in the Republican Party Christie by not being venoumous toward gay citizens would have a hard time gaining a national nomination.

That said watching Christie in what is becoming a disaster of epic proportions in his state of New Jersey he is a fantastic Governor. He is brash and not subtle but he cares and it is evident. Christie has an ability that is beyond the norm by far to get things done.

It also should be noted that politics can be divisive in even times like this, Christie however has been totally above board praising the President and all of his communications with him and the federal government's response to the emergency.

I am not sure it could ever convert to a national election but Chris Christie could well be the best Governor in the country.

Nate Silver Wants to Ruin His Career

For those on both sides of the political spectrum we have seen some very unfortunate firsts this election cycle. Perhaps there was always an undercurrent of this sort of thing, perhaps the new social media like Twitter, make it much more apparent, but now it seems that we are at a point where we no longer believe or accept any reports that we do not agree with.

Think about this, if your child gets a grade that he does not like it can be because the teacher has it out for him. If you lose a basketball game it is because the officiatiing was terrible. Yesterday watching my son play AAU basketball I heard a parent tell his son in a break in the game, " that fat ref has it out for you." Seriously in a million years how a parent can be so shortsighted as to be that way I cannot imagine. And, with my wife, and some very good friends in education I can tell you that the aforementioned scenario is commonplace.

It should be no surprise then of what we see now from reputable, national organizations. If the unemployment report comes in at a number that bodes well for the President than those on the right question it's validity. If a poll comes in that says that Governor Romney has made gains in a state those on the left question the makeup of the poll and state that it must be an outlier.

Which brings us to Nate Silver. Nate Silver is a statistician. This is what he does. It is his career. Still our friends on the right, including very serious publications such as The National Journal are speculating that Silver is picking and choosing which polls to include in his numbers so as to produce reports that show the President's likelihood of being reelected in the best light.

Silver's Five thirty eight blog which produced numbers in both 2008 and 2010 far superior to any other poll or polling model has, in the last year, been run by The New York Times. The Times as liberal as the Journal is conservative might well like to see the President win reelection but it just seems silly to think that Silver would be skewing his numbers.

Silver has used the same model from the beginning of the campaign season. Nothing has changed. His models have been transparent. He has recently written a book that outlines his theories of prediction.

Does this mean his numbers are correct. Of course not. And if he is wrong he will certainly suffer for it, professionally and otherwise. However as Silver states in his book a wrong prediction is either because of a failure to read a polling model correctly, or a failure in setting up a model. Clearly one cannot change the model in the middle of a campaign, even if, in some cases, his poll shows numbers not common.

Here is the sneaky truth however. The traditional polling measurements, Gallup, Rassmussen, etc do show Romney in a better light, Silver shows the President's chances of an electoral victory as superior. However it should be noted that many other pollsters using methods and formulas in the ballpark of Silver's show Obama ahead in the same way.

In the last weekend we heard that Virginia was now an Obama lean and Ohio might be moving toward Romney. In short no one knows. Except this. Nate Silver says that not one state, let me repeat that, not one state shows in his numbers a different winner than when he first polled them in June.

Silver's model, as I saw someone tweet is being used by Democrats as garlic to a vampire but that does not mean it is wrong. It is becoming apparent that he will be very wrong or very right.

However whatever the outcome to suggest that a professional statistician would be skewing the model would be to suggest he has decided he no longer wishes to be taken seriously. No one, in his right mind, would think that was Silver's goal.

So I do not know who will win but due to the nature of the political climate here is a post election headline. Pre Election skewed polls by Silver created a self fulfilling prophecy for Obama.

Of course the next step after that will be some small government Republican saying that polls have to be sanctioned and approved by the government. If you think I am wrong you are not paying attention.

Palin and Trump

I am not a Republican. I am a Democrat. I will tell you however that one thing I am sure of is that there are multitudes of, a great percentage of, a similar percentage of Republicans to Democrats, that have their countries best interest at heart. We just simply disagree.

Of all those good Republicans there are many, many, good public figures and politicians. Someone needs to explain to me, why Republicans allow Sarah Palin and Donald Trump to be the mouthpieces of their ideas and campaigns.

Watching Sarah Palin speak after the last debate as an expert is an exercise in humor. Eventually being a Mama Grizzly is not enough to be considered an expert. If Palin is shallow Donald Trump is beyond description. His bribe, blackmail, publicity stunt last week was like everything he does, all about Donald Trump.

Now I am sure that at this exact moment there is a Republican writing a similar column about a couple of wackadoodles on the left who are common mouthpieces for the left's positions and he, or she , will not be wrong to make the observation.

The question we have to ask ourselves is why do these parties full of rank and file members who are good people allow themselves to be spoken for by these terrible figures.

Credit to Paul LePage

I criticize Paul LePage a great deal and I am sure that will continue. He did something this week that I fully support and want to acknowledge that here.

Much has been made of the possibility of a fiscal cliff that will result from the sequestration budget issue, as well as the potential expiration of the Bush tax cuts. If this happens it is feared that the economy will collapse and both businesses and consumers will be hurt greatly.

As a precursor to this potentiality the administration has stated that the Federal Government will suspend the WARN act for companies of more that 100 employees that need to lay off workers.

Governor LePage, to his credit, has criticized the administration for this action and stated that the concern should be for the workers who would, without the WARN act, not be given sixty days notice of a pending loss of their job.

It really is a remarkable turnaround, a Democratic President suspending a pro labor act and a Republican Governor disagreeing.

LePage deserves to be commended strongly for this. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that some companies might use the cover of this budget crisis to bypass the act's provisions and jettison many employees in a flash.

I cannot understand the President's thinking on this.

Great job Governor LePage

Boeing: The Evil Company of the Day

An article in the Seattle newspapers today states that Boeing Aircraft has sent a letter to all of it's suppliers urging them to consider moving their operations to Mexico.

The letter proclaims that Mexico offers many advantages to suppliers that cannot be had in the United States. It states that the company will also be holding a workshop for it's suppliers explaining in detail how to begin this process.

Really? How many government dollars are spent on subsidies and handouts to this company. Here is an idea. Lets cancel them tomorrow.

Outrageous. Yes. Despicable. Yes

The 1980 Precedent Bodes Well For Romney

The huge get out the vote effort by the President's team might prove to be an effective counter, but many people are seeing a measurable shift in the polls to Mitt Romney on a national level.

The polls in the so called swing states however show that the President, might, just might, win enough of these states to eke out a victory.

It is generally proscribed political thought that undecided voters, in the end, often break for the challenger. I think this is true. If an incumbent, by the nature of being an incumbent, has four year to prove himself to you and a week before the election you are unsure of your vote it is likely that you will vote for the challenger.

This is what happened in 1980 when a race that was deemed close up until the last week broke that last weekend, in a huge shift, to Ronald Reagan. Polling then was not what it is today, in terms of accuracy, but the shift was measurable an noticeable and on the last weekend before the election President Carter had been made aware he was going to lose.

For that reason every undecided voter is a risk to the President. It may come down to the early voting. In the swing states this has clearly been a huge advantage for the President, the question is will that be enough to make up for the inevitable break of the undecided voters to Mr. Romney.

One thing you can be sure of, if the President wins reelection the number one goal of Republicans before the next Presidential election will be to roll back and or restrict any and all early voting procedures.

Here Come The Lawyers

It is becoming more and more likely that we could see a split in the popular and electoral votes in the coming election.

If this does happen and it is The President who wins the election by winning the electoral college it is going to be fascinating to see the extreme right tie itself in knots.

Many people are anti electoral college. I am not one of those. I feel that it is clear that a popular vote system would lead to a greater propensity for voter fraud and leave us with many more regional candidates. One must admit however that we are dangerously close now to having regional candidates at this time.

If we have the predicted potential split in the vote will those on the right declare the President illegitimate, will they state that the popular vote winner has to be the winner.

Looking back at the year 2000 one cannot possibly see any rational, serious, Republicans making that claim. However the claims will be made. The Rush Limbaugh's and Sean Hannity's will never take a loss in that way sitting down.

It could be interesting and dangerous for the country.

2 Billion Dollars

It was announced today that the Presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama have, combined, surpassed 2 billion dollars in money spent on the Presidential race.

This is a country of free speech and with the Citizens United ruling by the Supreme Court that is not going to change anytime soon.

Still one has to wonder why anyone wants to be President. Is it all ego? More importantly these monies being spent on the campaign are for the most part raised by private groups with agendas of their own. What reason would you as a private citizen or a private businessman give hundreds of thousands, or more, to spend on a political campaign.

We know why, because in a cost benefit analysis these people think it is a good investment. For Democrats these people are unions and lawyers. For Republicans the monies come from Big Business, Wall Street and energy companies.

Our government is for sale. Anyone who does not realize this is naive in the extreme.

Colin Powell versus Rob Scheider?

This morning I awoke and per usual turned on Morning Joe to catch up with the news. The first thing I see is breaking news that Colin Powell has endorsed President Obama for a second term.

No matter what you think of Mr. Powell he was a member of two Republican administrations including one as Secretary of State so his opinion certainly bears some weight.

Thinking to myself it might be interesting to see how they are spinning this on the Fox Network I turned over to Fox and Friends for a moment and saw that at that very moment they were featuring a story on Rob Schneider, yes that Rob Schneider, had proclaimed on a radio show yesterday that he could would not be supporting President Obama for a second term.

I think endorsements mean very little to most folks. When Bruce Springsteen plays a show at Ohio State and they then on their way out of the building do early voting certainly that has a measurable effect, other than that however I do not think these things matter.

Still, Colin Powell makes his endorsement and at the same time Fox is making a big deal of Rob Schneider supporting Mitt Romney. One has to admit that is a pretty interesting combination of endorsements.

Fox has to play it straight in these cases to be any kind of reputable outside the right wing market.

Being a Moderate Can Be Dangerous

I am a Democrat but I am a moderate and believe that I am in the silent majority of this country, that is moderate Republicans and Democrats. Recently there had been a controversy in this area about a local business which placed a sign in support of Voting No on Question 1 here in Maine. This is the question that will determine if same sex marriage is to be legal in this state.

As I guess might be expected this created a firestorm, those in favor stating that they would no longer patronize the business, and others proclaiming that they would now shop their more. Sort of a Maine version of the Chick Fil A argument.

None of this should be surprising but in watching these debates between friends on facebook and social media I was struck by the vitriol between friends, the seeming inability of people on both sides of the issue to remember that good people can have differing opinions.

I wrote a lengthy missive on my Facebook page about the need for understanding and that if we are intolerant of others opinions about tolerance then we are as intolerant of them. I feel that we have to understand that everyday this country becomes more and more polarized and that standing in our corners, amongst people who agree with us, shouting angry things at the opposite side is not going to solve anything.

Someone I care about greatly, one of my favorite people in the world, who, incidentally shares my opinion, in support of Question 1, was very angry and hurt by her interpretation of my remark. She felt that by saying that people could have their opinions even if they were bigoted that I was not correct. She felt that you had to stand up to people like that. I was sad to know that her feelings were hurt and felt that she must not understand what I was saying. I was simply saying that, of course, everyone has the right to their opinion but that hopefully in time if we felt strongly about something we could change those opinions. However she did understand what I meant and felt simply that if people had stupid opinions they did not have the right to have them.

And at that I guess we have to agree to not talk about it. If we ever get to the point where people are not allowed to have stupid opinions we better be damn sure who the arbiter of what is stupid is going to be. It is really a ridiculous statement, but yet this person is not ridiculous. This person is wonderful, caring, witty, and intelligent. This in itself is an indictment on our ability to converse with those we do not agree.

We wonder why moderate Republicans are becoming extinct and why Blue Dog Democrats are also almost non existent. It is because if you seek to work with the other side, to come to some agreement, to not let perfect be the enemy of good, you are rebuked from all sides.

There are some issues you cannot work around the edges on. Perhaps this is one of them. However I know this. There are many, in fact I would go so far as to say a high percentage of those who vote against question 1, who are good people. Sincere people who just, for a variety of reasons, are not comfortable with the changes that are happening so quickly in our society. I, myself, was not always in favor of full gay rights. I had no reason to be for or against, it just did not have an impact on me, I did not see the need for change. Over time my opinion changed as my life experience brought me into contact with more gay people. Here is what I know, on an issue like this that runs so hot, if you want to change someone's opinion you will not do it by screaming at them and calling them a bigot.

You could take out gay rights and replace it with any issue of your choice. Abortion, gun rights, the death penalty, legalizing marijuana, or many others. If you sincerely believe that only those who agree with you have the right to their opinion, nothing good will come to our society.

What did this experience teach me? That the polarization in this country is beyond the level that even I realized. If good people of different views cannot discuss a subject without throwing stones, verbal or otherwise, the outcome cannot be good. I also learned that if those who feel that we all need to work together, to have a sense of understanding and concern even with those we disagree, are rebuked for our beliefs that we will soon get off the playing field and all we will have left are the bomb throwers. That is a very scary prospect.

The Debates Round Three

Watching last night's debate it seemed apparent that the candidates are a little tired of meeting like this. I mean, after all, how many times can they say the same things over and over.

Mitt Romney : I know how to create jobs, I have balanced budgets, I have not spent my life in government.

Barack Obama : You don't balance the budget by increasing military spending by, everyone say it with me, " two trillion dollars they didn't ask for." I do not know if the Joint Chiefs agree with that statement but if they do they would be the first military figures in history who would not happily accept more money to spend on soldiers and equipment.

As to the specifics of the third debate I think it is clear that Obama won. Romney continued to modify his positions and move to the center, agreeing with much of what they President has done, only differing on the edges.

With this being the third debate this month, on the subject of foreign policy, matched up against Monday Night Football and a Game Seven in the baseball playoffs we do not really know who was watching or if they care to hear any more information.

As I have mentioned it is hard to know who could possibly be undecided at this moment. Is it one housewife in Akron, Ohio that is going to be the deciding vote in the election. Perhaps this weekend Obama and Romney will be there at her house winterizing her house for her.

If I was a Republican I would be concerned that Romney played it too cool. He behaved like a candidate who thinks that he has the race locked up and did not want to make any mistakes. He might be forgetting the impact of early voters, many of whom have voted already, and who all indications show have Obama leading by double digits in the swing states.

If I were a Democrat I would be concerned that Romney so clearly played it close to the vest that one has to wonder if he knows something that you don't. We have heard rumors of a big announcement coming from Donald Trump. While it is hard to take anything Trump does seriously if by chance, he drops some piece of information on the election close enough to election day to blow up with no time to refute it could change the script. Does Romney know this? Romney debated like a man with a big lead that he did not want to blow. There is nothing to indicate that this is true but Romney is not a dumb man. Does he know something that we do not. Democrats must be very cautious, every vote counts.

And for Democrats and Republicans both Mitt Romney if elected is going to be like a wrapped present. You do not know what you are getting.

Romney over the last two weeks has moved to the middle. For those moderates wanting to embrace the " not Obama" he has made himself an easy candidate to vote for. For those on the right who are talking to each other and saying things like " I don't like what he is saying Bill, he is just saying that until after the election right? ....right Bill? " The truth is they do not know.

And here is a newsflash. Mitt Romney does not know either. Mitt Romney is in some ways what we most need in Washington. He is a pragmatist. When he talks about working with Democrats in Massachusetts to get things done lets keep in mind, it was Massachusetts and he had to. If the House and Senate were somehow to tilt that Democratic with a Republican Romney as President then he would be Moderate Mitt and things would get done and the country would prosper. However if the Congress were to tilt far right he would become Conservative Mitt.


The man has no real ideology. We all know that Republicans in control of all branches of government are a force to be reckoned with. They do not break ranks. Ever. Democrats on the other hand eat their young. Obama did have majorities in both houses but for a Democrat that is no blessing.

I believe Obama is going to win. I want him to. I believe he will be a better President this time, and frankly some of his plans will have a very positive effect on my life. I fear Romney but it must be admitted that I fear Romney the Conservative. If the Democrats control enough of the Congress to force him to be moderate Mitt he could be a very successful President. In a way all these debates have done is shown what a wildcard Romney is, both for those who vote for him and those who do not.

It will be a very interesting two weeks.

Josh Mandel???? Really?

I saw some clips of the debate between the candidates for the Senate seat in Ohio between Sherrod Brown , the incumbent Democrat, and Josh Mandel the Republican. As we all know by now Ohio is a state that leans conservative and the fact that Brown won this seat at all six years ago was a bit of a surprise.

Therefore one would think that the Republicans in the state would find a very strong candidate to win back a seat that they should, rightly, consider theirs for the taking. Instead they have chosen as their candidate Josh Mandel. I will be the first to admit that I do not know much about Mandel, but in watching this clip he seems like a fairly weak candidate.

Not to be superficial but he looks like he is about 14, looking a bit Icabod Crane ish. He is not the handsome conservative, he is the nebbish, wonky, looking one. In a state like Ohio with a fairly significant bubba vote this cannot be a help. I like Sherrod Brown. Any true blood liberal that wins a Senate seat in a state like Ohio is a great politician, he is one of my favorites, that said I think he was very lucky to come up against a candidate such as this in his reelection fight. Of course he still is not sure of victory, turnout in Ohio should be high, but suppression efforts for the top of the ticket will certainly hurt Brown as much as President Obama.

Ohio in so many ways means everything this fall. It is pretty much assumed that while Obama could win without Ohio Governor Romney cannot and thus the leads that the President has had have to hurt Republicans to the core. One wonders what Mr. Romney, as he has been running for President for six years, was thinking when he suggested letting the automakers go under. Did he think that Obama could not save them and thus it would not be an electoral issue by the time he ran again.

At the Senate level Brown was always considered an in danger Democrat. To his credit he has done nothing to modify his positions, no one could call him a Bluedog Democrat though that might well have helped his chances. Getting Mandel for an opponent was a blessing, much like Claire McKaskill struck gold with Todd Aiken in Missouri. What is remarkable is that Mandel to some extent, and Aiken with a very legitimate chance, could both win victory. If they do win these races it will be a proof that in some states Republicans could run a corpse and win the race.

If this becomes the cast it might be simply that the Democrats will have to sit back and wait for the Demographics of the country to catch up to them. The Republicans in that time will have to find ways to achieve their goals while also softening up their stances to gain Hispanic votes.

Seriously if Josh Mandel is a United States Senator come January that will tell you all you need to know about the state of the Democratic party.

Polls, Polls, Polls

Are you tired of polls. Many of my friends say they are tired of getting a call every night. The fact that I do not get any calls, I think, leads you to see that the polls have to be skewed somewhat against cell phone users. The question is, of course, at this point is if there is a demographic difference between those people who do not use landlines at all and those that use only cell phones.

It would seem to me that there would be a difference, skewing perhaps slightly younger but then again the younger a person is the less likely they are to vote, so perhaps it all balances out.

If you hear each days all the polls, Mason Dixon, Reuters, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Gallup, and many others you know that the one thing they agree is that they do not agree. In the next few days we will hear that the poll numbers reflect the answers after the most recent debate, it is assumed that those will help the President. That most likely will be true.

Still one wonders, at least I wonder, if a man has been President for four years how his performance in a ninety minute debate can affect your opinion. To me a debate has one purpose and that is for the challenger to make himself look Presidential. That is can he stand on the same stage as the President and appear as if he is not beneath the President. I think, in some ways, Romney might be coming off a little too hard, a little too much like the boss you hate, but I do not think any impartial observer can say that Romney looks out of his depth.

If I were Romney's advisers I would tell them to not be quite so confrontational in the next debate, I think, especially in areas of foreign policy too much criticism in the wrong way can make one seem like they are betting against the country. I would always start my sentences with a prerequisite I believe the Presidents intentions are the same as mine, but here is how I would do things differently. No one on the right will listen to me and in fact might not agree with me, but I believe a softer sell is necessary from Mr. Romney in the final debate.

As to polls, there are just too many, and they are too varied. I recommend Nate Silver's 538 blog. Silver who started as a sports statistician, developing a system called PECOTA to make forecasts, in 2008 moved on to politics and impressed many by his nailing of the elections. Since that time he has consistently been the best pollster around. His numbers after the first debate moved in Romney's favor but with a combination of state and national information, and other economic numbers in his poll results he lists both national and state level elections and their potential results. Today he has Obama with a 65 percent chance to win the electoral college, up from yesterdays 63 percent number. Save yourself some headaches, follow him and feel less stress.

Entertainers and Politics

Each election cycle there is quite a bit of conversation about various celebrities endorsing political figures or in some cases working for certain political causes.

It is interesting because often times they are criticized for using their celebrity to make known their opinions. For me I do not see the big deal and think that as in most cases in our political discourse it is all a matter of opinion.

Fox news has folks like Hank Williams Jr, and Chuck Norris on their shows and those on the left ridicule them. Democratic causes often have a great roster of entertainers working for them and those on the right criticize them.

I think these figures have every right to make their opinions known and I think that consumers, if they so desire, can decide to like or dislike them based on those opinions if they so wish. After all when we as people decide our opinion of individuals we like to do so based on as much information as possible.

If you think Ted Nugent is a Nazi or Bruce Springsteen is a liberal pinko then that might, could, and in some cases, depending on the level of importance politics plays in your life, affect how your feel about them.

I, for example, must admit that for all my belief in religious freedom have a hard time feeling the same way about Tom Cruise with all the Scientology information we hear. I have a hard time thinking of the Jon Voight in Coming Home and Midnight Cowboy as being the same man we see embracing Republican causes. That said I have no doubt that many Republicans gag at Bruce Springsteen telling them how to think and Jon Stewart skewering their candidates on a nightly basis.

Perhaps the wisest person, the most credible way to act in these situations, is displayed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Christie is a major Springsteen fan, stating that he as been to well over a hundred shows, including the most recent tour. Yet he has no illusions about their politics ever meshing. For Christie it matters not. Perhaps that is the most mature response one could have.

When you as a Democrat laud Republican Chris Christie as having a more mature opinion on the mixing of politics and entertainment it might be time to look in the mirror and make sure you do not see a hypocrite.

The Al Smith Dinner

Watching both Governor Romney and President Obama share a stage last night, smile, make self depreciating jokes about themselves one wonders why American politics has to be the way it is.

Sometimes it seems like no matter the issue each sides opinion of it is dependent on the other sides opinion of it.

My wife came home from a seminar a few weeks ago that had addressed how to help and teach kids who had oppositional defiance issues. I believe our government has the same problem.

Romney/Obama Round Two

One thing has become manifestly clear. These debates are great entertainment. Where the first debate was all Romney this debate was a great battle. Look what is clear is that people on both sides of the political spectrum will continue to support their candidates and thus think that their candidate won.

What I want to address is that what became apparent in this forum was that while we have had four years to get to know the President's personality we now have become clearer and clearer on the personality of Mitt Romney.

There is a line between being aggressive and being arrogant and rude. What is hard for me to know that is how these exchanges are read by those critical undecided voters. Romney clearly is used to having his own way, he is very clearly a person who when challenged can be petulant and petty. I think what is quite apparent is that he is not that comfortable with women, certainly professional women, and that when challenged by anyone with a different set of facts or premises than he comes to the table with can be dismissive and rude.

How this would affect our relationships with other countries, one does not know. I want our government to be tougher on China and their economic policies, one gets the sense however that Romney has alot of his manhood tied up in his decisions.

I think that Romney is not a very likable man. G W Bush was a terrible President but I think he was likable. I saw the President once go back and pull a security guard out of a crush of reporters, pat him on the back and proceed. One gets the sense in the same scenario Romney would upbraid the man and demote him.

So many missed opportunities however to define Romney. It is not a pretty picture that Romney defines.

Last Call For the President

Tonight the President and Governor Romney will have their second debate. Over the last two weeks we have heard nothing about how badly the President did in the prior meeting and it has all been truthful. The pressure is on.

Recent polls show the race much closer than it was nationally, even more important the swing state polls seem to indicate that a clear path to victory is now available to each candidate.

This debate tonight, barring an October surprise in world events, should be the deciding factor. What Obama's people know,and what no one is talking about now, is that the longer that the President and the Governor are neck and neck in the polls the less likely it is that the President will win.

Traditionally undecided voters break for the challenger in a race as the election gets closer. It seems that if two weeks out or less if you still cannot find a definitive reason to vote for the President you will roll the dice and vote against the incumbent. This is terrible news for the White House.

If Obama loses this country could be in for post election strife or worse. I do not think Romney will be as bad as he has campaigned but I also am not sure he will be a good President. One thing is clear this race has morphed to the race the challenger wanted. Romney as long as he does not spit on himself or say something stupid has made this race not about him, but about the President. The President has not laid out a plan of his own, he has debated poorly, and his passion seems non existent.

We will know much more at this time tomorrow and I would not daresay predict what will hapen, what we do know is that this race did not need to be this close.

Polarization and Stolen Elections

There is an elephant in the room in the coming election and no one, on either side, is addressing it. Around the periphery occasionally you will hear a reference made to it but it is rare and usually silenced.

George Will wrote an article a couple of weeks ago talking about how far it would mean we have come as a nation, as regards race, if we cannot vote a black President out of office without it becoming a racial issue.

Chuck Todd broke the reporters rule and expressed emotion recently by stating that both sides, right and left, needed to stop disavowing any report, poll, or other piece of information that did not favor their side. This is not a Republican, Democrat issue, this is now a both sides issue.

When Romney trails Fox news says the polls are skewed. When Obama trails the polls must be an aberration. The recent claims by Jack Welch about the unemployment report being manipulated were a new low. Consider this, as a result of that fiasco Welch severed his relationship with Fortune magazine which criticized him and said he he will now publish only in The Wall Street Journal. The WSJ is conservative in it's outlook, this is no surprise, but are we really to the point where a magazine as venerable as this will become a right wing mouthpiece doubting government reports veracity. We are reaching a point just as Todd says that has no good ending.

When one looks back to recent elections we can see that the stage is set for a very troubling November. The 2000 election, Gore v Bush, was well documented and I do not wish to review the whole issue. That Gore won the popular vote is not in dispute, that more people in Florida " meant " to vote for Gore is rarely in doubt, and for those of us who thought of G W Bush as an abomination the Supreme Court placed him in office. The fact is Bush won by the rules that were present, and his side fought harder. Gore could have won that election so easily. Looking back his failure to use Bill Clinton as a campaign weapon and his basically turning his back on him means that Gore got what he deserved.

When Bill Clinton was elected an acquaintance of mine stated that he stole the election and everyone knew it. Perhaps I was naive at the time, I thought the idea of that was foolish. I still do not believe anybody thought that was a real possibility.

If any election has been stolen in my lifetime I think that 2004 was it. Most remember that as the year the exit polls were stating that Kerry would win. In the end he did not and remarkably it was easily accepted that in many states the exit polls had been wrong. Statistically over the last forty years the exit polls had never been wrong by more than a percentage point, and never enough to turn a race. Still John Kerry did not fight the issue , the press accepted the facts as given, and when a few lonely reporters sniffed around the story they were treated with derision by those on both sides.

That brings us to this election. The election of 2012. To me there is a great possibility of a very close race. A possibility of a split between the electoral college and the popular vote is real. In a few weeks we could be looking at a situation with recounts and demonstrations, court battles and accusations. And underneath all of this, whether we like it or not, will be the added bonus of racial tension.

What we should all hope for is that before anybody on either side of this election starts throwing bombs and accusations they should consider all that can go wrong in the aftermath of a disputed election.

It is getting close. Let's all take a deep breath.

Major League Baseball Playoffs

Wow! What a great week of baseball it has been. I cannot proclaim to have watched all of the games this week but with all four series going five games one has to be impressed with the playoffs thus far.


The Yankees have had an earth shattering revaluation during their series this week with Baltimore. Joe Girardi has been roundly criticized for his performance as manager, in comparison to media darling Buck Showalter especially, but I think Girardi is underrated and doing all he can with what is, essentially, an old, fast getting older team, of veterans. His decision to pinch hit for Alex Rodriguez this week showed what is in store for Yankee fans, namely five years and over 100 million left to pay a man that is essentially a shadow of what he was. Whoever wins this series today this has been a great, if offensively challenged series.

Last evening Justin Verlander pitched a shutout as the Tigers finished off the Oakland A's and their improbably run. Verlander is as good as it gets and he proved it last night. The Athletics had a great year however and one wishes that their fans could prove to be a little more loyal, as they were wonderful last night.

The Reds, with their collapse to the Giants, are in for a long winter. It seems likely that Dusty Baker will not be back, but certainly the injuries to Cueto and Joey Votto were great factors in their defeat. The Giants on the other hand showed again how resilient they are and they will be intimidated by nothing the rest of the way.

Today we will see Game Five of the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals in the conclusion of a series that has been a little overshadowed by the other baseball taking place. Most baseball fans would like nothing more than the Strasburg shut down controversy to go away and whereas that will never be going away until the Nats are dead and buried perhaps it will be better for all of us if the Cards win today. To me being in a game five with their twenty game winner on the mound in Gio Gonzales it seems to me the Nationals have no one to blame, certainly not the Strasburg issue, should they lose today.


Lets hope the next round continues to be as exciting.

Post Debate

This morning Joe Scarborough pointed out that last evenings Vice Presidential Debate was a Rorschach test. Wherever you stood going into the debate you stood in the same place after, of course this goes along with an opinion that who in the world is undecided at this point.

That said Paul Ryan was competent and likable. At times he seemed incredibly young next to Biden and one has to wish that he had a hairstyle that would remove that center piece hanging down his forehead. He does not look Presidential but as I said yesterday I think that one could be satisfied that either of these men would be the better President than the candidate of their parties.

Biden and Ryan will always energize the base, they each did their job. Any highlights that will be shown will reinforce 98 percent of the people's prior opinion, therefore in reality this debate will mean nothing.

Next Tuesday might well be the deciding factor.

On the Record about Joe Biden

Before the debate takes place I want to go on the record as saying that I believe Joe Biden will do very well tonight. I am not convinced he will win as Paul Ryan is a bright guy, a true believer as it were, just as Biden is on the left.

I think factually one could argue that Biden and Ryan represent the true souls of their parties while Romney and Obama have no clear passions and perhaps are more barometers and weather-vanes. That is, in it's way, kind of sad.

Vice Presidents have in the new media a caricature. You cannot think of one in the last thirty years that has not become such a figure of humor and mockery that his chances at the Presidency were seriously harmed. Yes Bush the elder succeeded but his race was on the front end of this time frame and his opponent was perhaps one of the worst campaigners we have ever seen.

The truth is that Joe Biden is a bright man, who is passionate and connects. In a less telegenic focused age I think that a race between Ryan and Biden for the Presidency would be a great thing, they are the candidates that appeal to the traditional wings of their parties.

This could and should be the most substantive debate that we will see this fall.

Whiny Lefties and Mean Righties

I will say it again for me as a moderate Democrat nothing is more offputting than the whining of the far left. You can pick the issue, it does not matter, but when the far left gets going with their victim mentality you just want to tell them to shut up.

When those on the right do their normal manipulation of non facts and repeat them often enough to convince some that they are the truth you can at least respect them for having some gumption and drive.

On the left though we use a Chicken Little The Sky is Falling approach and any chance of gaining Independent Voters from our efforts fly out the window. A year or so ago I wrote about friends of my wife from Colorado who are so far removed from the life of the typical American voter that as an example of an Obama voter they do more to hurt the cause than help it, these people and people like them are those that you hear complaining, whining, or speaking in a condescending way of those who do not agree with them. It will never achieve the aims of the good, reasonable folks in the moderate middle.

Obama got his ass kicked last week. There is no explanation and certainly no excuse. It was not Jim Lehrer's fault and really, running an ad with Big Bird in it, that is supposed to convince undecided voters that you are the serious candidate.

The people on the left need to get a grip and Obama needs to do better at the next debate. It is just that simple.

Explaining the President's Debate Performance

I have pondered this subject for the last four or five days, read articles, listened to opinions and at this point have decided to let it rest. While it is hard for me to imagine that the average voter would change their mind on one debate performance what one needs to understand is that the average voter might just now be starting to pay attention to the race. The average voter is more influenced by what his friends and family says, in fact I would go so far as to say many people who have changed to Romney in these polls did not see the debate but are listening to the comments of people they know that say Romney beat Obama in the debate.

There is no disputing that fact. Obama looked disinterested, uncaring, checked out, one could go on and on. If Bill Clinton's War Room team taught us anything it is that unchecked lies become truths. Therefore all the never heard before modification of Romney's plans are now truths until proven otherwise. An advertisement disputing Romney's claims will never be effective in the same way because we are trained to take all of these ads with a grain of salt.

Did Obama throw away the election. I hope not. I will say that another performance such as what happened last Tuesday and this race might go down as one of the greatest chokes in the history of American politics. If Obama does not want it any worse than he showed last week maybe he does not deserve to be President.

All Politics is Local

This expression has oft been uttered but not always been understood to be true. In this years races we have a strong example of how this is indeed the case.

In the Maine State Senate battle for the district representing Bangor and Hermon it is estimated that up to a quarter of a million dollars might be spent by the two sides to elect their candidates. The Republicans have nominated one term Senator Nichi Farnham while the Dems have nominated local Doctor and former City Councilor Geoff Gratwick.

This race gives us an illustration of how little we know the personal lives of the candidates we support. For example I am not a fan of Mitt Romney and think Paul LePage is probably the worst Governor in my lifetime. With all that said there is no reason to believe they are not fine, upstanding, family men who just happen to have a disagreement with me about how the country should work.

In the local race Nichi Farnham is a person who I know a bit, someone I would speak with if I saw her, our children have gone to school together for years and one of her sons and mine are quite good friends, sharing classes and sports teams. I know she is a good person, has raised a fine family and that if as her constituent I was to call her with help for a problem she would be responsive and helpful. Her opponent is Dr.Gratwick, a man I know not at all. Still he is the Democrat and on a recent piece of campaign literature I received attacking Dr. Gratwick I read the accusation that he would be a puppet for many groups and four of those groups mentioned were the teachers union, Maine State Employees, the AFL-CIO and the Sierra Club. I guess it just is an example of how far off the mainstream of our culture I am that I think support from those four groups is a good thing.

What this means is that the candidate that I personally like, know, and respect, Nichi Farnham is the candidate that has consistently been a rubber stamp for the Governor whose positions I detest. What was the last straw for me was the Republicans decision last spring to reach an agreement with the Dems on a budget impasse and then when Governor Lepage vetoed a line he disagreed with those on the right neglected their Constitutional duty to reconvene and vote on the issue and instead allowed him to get away with that stunt. It smelled bad, allowing the Republicans to claim they were willing to work with the left and then allowing LePage's veto to stand. Keep in mind the agreed upon budget was put forth with unanimous consent.

It does not matter how good a person is if when they go to Augusta they give into the most extreme portions of their party. Those that would say that Gratwick will be in line with the extreme left might be correct. The truth unvarnished is that if being in favor and support of unions is an extreme position one can cover me extreme.

Still I would like to vote for Farnham, if I had some sense that she would try to restrain the far right of her party I would but there is nothing to make one think that she differs in opinion with these folks.

I still think she is a fine person. I suppose that in itself is progress. If we can vote against someone without vilifying them into a bad person, we might be on our way to a more civil discourse.

Crazies and Conspiracies to the Left and to the Right

Sometimes I think I am the last sane person interested in politics. After the President was soundly beaten in the debate Wednesday night, and make no mistake by any measurement that matters he was soundly beaten, we heard complaints from the left that something was wrong with Obama. Jim Lehrer was a terrible moderator and allowed Romney to walk all over him. And many more complaints. The problem is that it is all silly. Look Mitt Romney may not be your candidate but no can deny that he is an intelligent man. He prepared for the debate, he had a good grasp of the facts, or at least the facts he was going to lay claim to and he presented them effectively. Democrats would be much better served to tipping the cap to the Governor and moving forward, every complaint, every utterance of sour grapes just keeps the focus on the President's performance. Every tweet I see where a person from the left states that Romney will not have two weeks to prepare for a real crisis in the Presidency is silly. The rules of the debate were set, Romney took advantage of them and cleaned the President's clock. Move on.

Which with the release of the October jobs report this morning brings us to the paranoids on the right. I am no economist and as I watched Morning Joe this morning the panel tried to make sense of the numbers as they presented relatively low job growth but unemployment fell to 7.8 percent. This number is significant because it is the first time it has been below eight percent in the President's tenure. At one point a tweet from Jack Welch was read stating, apparently not tongue in cheek, that the numbers were cooked by the Chicago boys. Really? A couple of points here. Do you think that if the numbers could be cooked they would not have been doing so all along? More importantly if you think the numbers could be cooked by an administration do you not think they would have added more jobs as well so that there were no obvious questions about the numbers.

The fact is that the polarization of the country is so bad that both sides constantly think they are getting hosed. As I heard someone say compromising with someone you accuse of unethical behavior three hours before you enter into negotiations is a difficult thing. And compromise and realism is what is needed.

Joe Scarborough said he can always tell which side has won the day by the hate and rage in his twitter feed, ergo the side that has lost the day, their loonies always are angriest and filled with the most conspiracy theories.

I guarantee you later today Fox News will be spending a great deal of time questioning the validity of these numbers. Anyone with sense would know the best thing Romney could do would be to applaud the numbers and move on to his plan to increase the improvement. Nobody likes a whiner and complaining about the numbers in a jobs report makes you look small and like you are rooting against the country.

People on both sides need to grow up and behave like they were taught in kindergarten.

Last Night We Saw President Romney

Watching the very important first debate last evening no one, and I mean no one, could walk away from the performance of Mitt Romney and not be sure he won the debate. Now we Democrats can talk about points made around the edges, that the moderator was weak, or things of this sort but we must understand one thing. The ground in this Presidential race shifted last night.

What makes this debate doubly frustrating for Democrats is that while there is no doubt that Governor Romney made was more commanding, more assertive, and to put it nicely had a clear presentation of his " facts", the President did have many opportunities to press Romney on his statements.

How can a Presidential debate happen and talk about fixing the Deficit without asking for specifics, how can a tax plan be debated without specifics on exemptions be demanded, how can Globalization be debated without talking about Bain Capital and Outsourcing, and how can we not mention 47 percent in any form.

In a sense it felt like Obama was playing rope a dope, not wanting to make any mistakes but this debate was total domination. You can lose a fight on points just as easily as you can lose on a knockout. In the end the title still changes hands.

I have been watching debates for thirty years, this was the worst performance I have ever seen. The President seemed unprepared, his body language was terrible, and his Anwar Sadat tic in his speech pattern was on display all evening.

Does this mean Romney wins. No it does not. In an odd way it might prove to be a good way to mobilize the Democrats to get out the vote. I also question how many people are truly undecided. In that sense Obama will most likely be alrght.

Still this was disconcerting. When Bill Maher, Chris Matthews, and Michael Moore say the Democrat lost the debate it was not close.

Two weeks ago on 60 minutes the Governor said that if a person has no health insurance then they can always go the emergency room, last night he cared about each and every American. Romney has been going around the country talking about his tax plan which according to all analysis provides a huge tax cut to the wealthy and now says that he will not cut high tax rates, he will cut middle class taxes, he will not raise the deficit, and that he will raise defense spending. As far as what he said last night he will accomplish this by cutting PBS. For the life of me the truest statement Romney said last night was that you could not have your own facts. The problem was he said this to the President and the President as he did all night just smiled and looked chastened.

I am not upset, I am mystified. I applaud the Governor. A wonderful performance. Here is something to consider. Is it possible that we saw the real Romney last night, the moderate, no longer in Conservative's clothes. Is it possible that under their celebrating his victory last night the Conservatives are hoping that this is only a wink and a nod performance as a sop to the middle and not a true reverting to who he really is.

Here is a fact. The Mitt Romney who appeared last night appeared to be more like Massachusetts Mitt and that man is electable as President of the United States. The fun thing is no one, and I mean no one, knows what kind of President he will be.

I saw a Samuel L Jackson video the other day urging Democrats to Wake up. I think that someone needs to deliver that message to the President today. He through his incompetence last night did what seemed impossible, he made Mitt Romney look Presidential.

Checking in With Paul LePage

Our Governor has been trying to behave recently. Not many headlines coming out of Augusta these days. Of course we all know that that Governor is just holding his breath to see if he is going to hold his majority in the state legislature. If he does then one assumes that he will be doubling down on his Conservative agenda.

Last weekend LePage announced that he was pulling out of the National Governors Association because he did not feel Maine got enough out of the sixty thousand dollars that we paid in dues.

On first blush this is sure to be a popular move. After all public officials using zero based budgeting and having to justify any expense is a good move in tight economic times.

My concern, and I am probably in the minority on this, was when I found out that LePage will still attend the yearly meeting in which the Governors Association meets with the President and the Cabinet. LePage did say he planned to attend that meeting but not any other meetings which he described as " too touchy feely and politically correct for him."

I sympathize with his feelings. I have found often that the more people that are in a meeting the less gets done. However a representative from the NGA has said that all Governors are considered members even if they do not pay dues. In short LePage can attend or not attend these meetings irrespective of if we as a state pay our dues.

For years and years the United States has not paid dues to the United Nations. I do not have any opinion or care what some third world country thinks of us negating our financial responsibility to the United Nations. I do wonder how LePage's and his happy "We are open for business attitude" clashes with the fact that we plan to enjoy services as a State while negating to pay our financial dues.

If one took that to the extreme would that be different than a tax payer saying he was not paying taxes because he lived in the woods, never ventured to town and did not get enough out of it.

I think that the Governor should stop trying to make cheap political points and act responsibly. Either quit the group and attend no meetings at all or pay the dues and attend.

Don't Get Too Excited in Wisconsin

Last spring Chief Justice of the Supreme Court John Roberts outraged conservatives with his ruling that allowed the President's health care law, known as Obamacare, to survive. As the dust settled on that case what was predicted by some, and I tend to agree with this narrative, was that Roberts just did not think that the health care law was the most important issue in his mind.

Barring an unforeseen circumstance Chief Justice Roberts should be on the bench for the next twenty years or more. In the near future we should have cases before the Supreme Court that have to do with election law ,( Citizens United showed that Roberts has no qualms about changing the rules in this area) affirmative action, and of course many laws related to business, taxes, and right to work.

A week or so ago a judge in Wisconsin ruled that the Wisconsin anti union law forced through the legislature two years ago was unconstitutional and placed an injunction against it. Now to my knowledge Governor Walker has not put a stop to the practice, in fairness to him, I do not know if this law is something you can start and stop on a dime. And in truth does anyone really think that when this law makes its final appeal, no matter who at that time is the litigant by that time, to the Supreme Court that any judgement favoring unions is going to be forthcoming. To think that, based on the composition of this court is foolish.

No, what Democrats need to understand is that if they go to the Supreme Court looking for relief on labor law they have already lost.

So lets not get too excited about this small injunction. If the folks in Wisconsin really want to affect change they need to vote these anti union folks out of office.

Brown Vs Warren in Massachusetts

I watched the debate last evening between Brown and Warren for the Senate seat in Massachusetts. It was a spirited debate and interesting to view.

Scott Brown, who took the Senate seat upon Ted Kennedy's death, is, by all accounts, a nice fellow, who is walking an extremely tight rope between his party's conservative base and what he most likely is, a moderate Republican.

With Barack Obama winning Massachusetts by a double digit margin there are many that feel Warren will win on the strength of nothing more than the coattails of the President. Certainly this does give her an advantage.

With eighteen percent of Massachusetts voters calling themselves undecided this race is far from determinable. In last night's debate Brown was aggressive, repeatedly calling Warren Professor, at one point telling her " to let him speak, he is not one of the students in her classes." As a candidate who portrays himself as a nice guy I am not sure this is going to make him successful.

By my estimates anyone who considers himself against the pointy headed academics of Harvard and the like has long ago decided to vote for Scott Brown. Brown needs to gain the votes of moderates and women. I am not sure being condescending to a female candidate is the right tact.

Brown is a good candidate but he is a prime example of why moderates have a hard time succeeding. His tactics in last nights debate will make for good sound bites and will make his base feel good about themselves and him, it will not however help him in his efforts to climb the substantial mountain placed against him in this race.