The 1980 Precedent Bodes Well For Romney

The huge get out the vote effort by the President's team might prove to be an effective counter, but many people are seeing a measurable shift in the polls to Mitt Romney on a national level.

The polls in the so called swing states however show that the President, might, just might, win enough of these states to eke out a victory.

It is generally proscribed political thought that undecided voters, in the end, often break for the challenger. I think this is true. If an incumbent, by the nature of being an incumbent, has four year to prove himself to you and a week before the election you are unsure of your vote it is likely that you will vote for the challenger.

This is what happened in 1980 when a race that was deemed close up until the last week broke that last weekend, in a huge shift, to Ronald Reagan. Polling then was not what it is today, in terms of accuracy, but the shift was measurable an noticeable and on the last weekend before the election President Carter had been made aware he was going to lose.

For that reason every undecided voter is a risk to the President. It may come down to the early voting. In the swing states this has clearly been a huge advantage for the President, the question is will that be enough to make up for the inevitable break of the undecided voters to Mr. Romney.

One thing you can be sure of, if the President wins reelection the number one goal of Republicans before the next Presidential election will be to roll back and or restrict any and all early voting procedures.