Can Romney Win

It is hard to believe that just a few short weeks ago we were hearing of Republican Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney's terrible poll numbers. When it came to likability ratings and the " gender gap " we were told that Mr. Romney had some deficits that might not be repairable in just the six months before the election.

Demonstrating how little the pundits know today a CBS poll showed that Romney now has a 3 point lead nationally, has a favorable rating that matches or betters Obama's, and now leads The President in the women's vote.

How does this happen. I have no idea. Neither do the so called experts.

One thing to keep in mind is that early in the election year most potential voters are not paying attention. It is hard to remember that when you are a political junkie like me but a great part of the electorate spends very little energy on the Presidential race until the fall.

I believe that Romney can win. Actually I believe that Romney will win. When you look at the it logically anytime an incumbent is up for reelection to the Presidency the voting is in large part a referendum on the incumbent. If that is so then the President is in real trouble.

I have read how much the President has accomplished. Health Care Reform, Financial Reform in the case of Dodd-Frank, Bin Laden, GM, Libya, the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell and now his support for Gay Marriage.

Ask yourself what on that list will make the twenty percent in the middle, that decide elections, vote for him. His biggest accomplishment, Health Care Reform is a success he runs away from due to it's unpopularity. Why is it unpopular? This President, theoretically the Great Communicator, never took ownership. What he has now is a plan that no one understands, thus one that is easily caricatured by the right, that even his base is tepid about at best. In fact many on the left hope the Supreme Court rules to void the bill. Why? They feel it might be one of the only ways to energize the base and that it leaves open the possibility of the Holy Grail, single payer as an alternative.

For Independents though this is not a large issue. Financial Reform could have been but again Obama communicated poorly and allowed his bill to be watered down to the point of being toothless. He could not even get his choice as the first director through the Senate.

Most folks will assume that any President would have made the choice to get " Bin Laden, and Gay Marriage like Abortion is not an issue that switches votes. If your vote will be decided by those issues than your decision is likely made long before Obama or Romney for that matter speaks.

What this means is that the President cannot win a referendum on his performance. The answer, Obama will have to demonize Romney or at least portray him as out of touch. This might be possible. Romney certainly provides fodder for the out of touch argument. Demonizing a devout Mormon with a loving wife and five picture-book sons might be a tough sell.

Electorally Obama could be saved by Ohio and states like New Mexico and Colorado. It will be close. I think that Romney wins the popular vote. The debacle in the West Virginia Democratic primary last week portends one thing. Where Obama loses in red states he is going to lose by record breaking numbers.

Should Obama win the Electoral College and lose the Popular it will be interesting to see how our friends on the right feel about that.