The Iowa Straw Poll Results

It is a bit strange that part of the process to electing a President is a poll where people pay money to vote in a non binding forum six months prior to the actual election. The Republican straw poll which took place yesterday in Iowa has already served to knock former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty out of the race. Pawlenty at one time was considered a viable candidate but in a crowded field he did nothing to make himself stand out and when Michelle Bachman entered the race he became the other candidate from Minnesota.

Also Saturday and surely of more long term import Texas Governor Rick Perry declared himself a candidate for the race. Perry, brings much firepower and much baggage into the race. Michelle Bachman wins the Iowa primary but on the same day the candidate the Conservative Christians who are her base pine for, Rick Perry, jumps in the race. This is the perfect good news/bad news day for Bachman.

As expected she wins the straw poll but for most people the fact that Rick Perry is in the race puts her in the position of being an afterthought. On Friday Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe said that if Iowa let Bachman win they would again prove the irrelevance of their opening caucus. He stated that Bachman is a joke. Well the joke won on Saturday but with Perry's entry she is a joke no one will remember.

The race appears to be for all intents and purposes a two man race. A race that is clearly defined and should be a good one. Mitt Romney has amassed a huge lead in fundraising but will never inspire a grassroots movement built on enthusiasm. A pragmatic he is the best man for the job vote perhaps but not a dancing in the streets enthusiasm. Perry is the opposite. He will have a core group of followers that would be willing to knock on a thousand doors a day. Perry's problem will be in getting non conservatives and if he is successful in the primary Independents to support him in the National Election.

As I think about it Obama might be better served by a Perry nomination in getting his vote out as Perry will energize the Democratic base like Obama cannot. However Perry will energize his own base as well. Turnout will be much higher in a Perry/Obama race.

If Romney wins the base of both party will not be energized as Romney, ever dutiful will try to energize the right but fail to do so. He might win enough independents to win the election but it is unlikely his firebreathing efforts will catch hold.

In the end Romney will have enough money to withstand Perry's success in the early Conservative states. If Romney decides to go all in and stay in he should be able to withstand Perry. One might think that the longer Perry is in the race the more likely it is he will have an implosion of his own making.

Still were I to have to place a bet I would go with Perry. The darling of the Tea Party and it seems apparent that The Tea Party is driving the bus. A Perry/Obama race will be polarizing and nasty. It will be scary for both sides who would view the opposite party as winning as a scary thing.

It would however be an election of very stark differences. No McCain pretending to be a Conservative this would be a true Conservative against a solid, however getting less solid, liberal.

There is a long way to go but that is the view from this perspective for now.