The Snowe Earthquake

Olympia Snowe's announcement that she will not be seeking reelection to the United States Senate has sent political shock waves around the country and of course around the political landscape of Maine.

I will address the Senator's decision, thought process and what this means for politics in general in a later post but today I want to talk about the blood in the water in Maine politics.

It has not taken long for the major Democrats to surface. Both of Maine's House members have taken out filing papers as they consider a run as has former two term Governor John Baldacci. If the House members seek the Senate seat then a domino effect takes place.

When I first heard about the seat becoming vacant I actually remembered names like Joe Brennan and Sean Faircloth. It seems, however, that whatever crypt Brennan is being kept in will not be opened. Faircloth has risen and fallen in politics in Maine, but his electoral probability is probably quite small. To put it nicely Faircloth is not a great fit for the Maine electorate.

So looking at the three Democrats all have distinct pluses and minuses.

The potential candidate with the biggest buzz right now, especially from the Progressive left is Chellie Pingree. Pingree seems likely to run but it is my opinion that Pingree would be the weakest candidate in a general election. Following on the footsteps of Tom Allen, and earlier Tom Andrews, Pingree might be too liberal too win a statewide race. In fact I will go so far as to say that Pingree will lose if she wins the primary.

John Baldacci was not an overly popular Governor. He won a second term but much of his agenda has been dismantled by Paul Lepage. One has to wonder what it says about a Governor if as he leaves office his chair and both the State Legislature and the State Senate are filled by Republicans and or their majority. Still Baldacci could win, but it would not be easy.

Perhaps of the three candidates with the best chance to win would be the one with the least likelihood of running. Michaud is considered a Blue Dog Democrat and has voted against some of the Obama agenda. He is said to be concerned about his House District going red if he departs. However an honest observation of the electorate would show that Michaud has a better chance of getting Senate votes in Pingree's district than Pingree does in Michauds. Michaud would be a strong candidate and with Obama at the top of the ticket would be the most likely to win.

The Republicans are tossing out names like Charlie Summers and Steve Abbott but clearly the candidate with the best chance to win would be Kevin Raye. Raye would poll well in the second district and especially if an Independent is in the race could win.

The elephant in the room is or I should say are Elliott Cutler and Angus King. King is said to be considering a run and has the added advantage as an Independent of being able to wait to file until early summer. Much of the blue and red drama will have played out by then and King will be able to size up the field. Cutler I do not think is as viable a candidate for the Senate seat, one would think that he is spoiling for a rematch against Mr. LePage.

The danger of course from a left of center point of view is that calling King an Independent does not change the fact that he is closer to the left than the right. In effect you would have one candidate of the right and two candidates of the left or at least center left. This could create a mirror of the LePage election.

If I were betting today I would bet in order of liklihood of winning the following.

1. King
2.Michaud
3. Raye
4. Baldacci
5. Pingree

This is an estimate not based on who is in the race but the overall likelihood of who are next Senator is. When the primaries are done and all candidates announced we will have a better picture.



In the House races if Michaud were to run candidates such as Emily Cain and Debra Plowman would most likely be running from the left and right respectively. Were Pingree to run much has been made of the likelihood of her daughter Hannah Pingree running for her Mom's seat and one interesting name I heard from the right was Mark Gartley. Wasn't he in Congress thirty years ago?

It should be interesting.