The trouble in Egypt

It started a week or so ago when demonstrations in Tunesia led to the fall of the government. The United States tried to cover all bases and be supportive of Democratic reforms but the jury is still out on what will happen as to the form of government to be established there.

Now Egypt is exploding. 30 years of rule since the death of Anwar Sadat. Egypt is not a Democracy. As so often happens to the United States we have backed Mubarek because he has kept the Islamists at bay, agreed to be hands off to Israel, kept the Suez Canal safe and all for the price of only billions of dollars a year in aid.

So now the die is cast. No matter how much we urge restraint on the Egyptian governments part we cannot want Mubarek to fall. If he falls there is a strong chance of a much less Western friendly government. This could lead to trouble for Israel, the Canal, and the overall stability in the region.

Success in Egypt would throw the shadow inevitably on Saudi Arabia. A fall of the Royal family in Saudi Arabia would be nothing short of catastrophic for the West. Were that to happen oil shock does not begin to describe what would happen. Gas prices would double overnight and that would most likely only be the beginning.

Would the United States military be forced to prop up the Royals.

As with most things this would be an opportunity. It would cut the cord to Middle East oil then and there. We would hurt, it would hurt but that would be the real " Sputnik" moment for the West.

That is a long way from happening. It could happen. We need to be prepared.

It is not that we made the wrong choices in supporting Mubarek. As is so often the case for the United States we made the best choice in a list of all bad choices.

Now we must wait and see.