The Election

As we are nearly a week out from the mid terms it is time to take a look at what this election meant and did not mean. There are those that argue that Obama by trying to please everyone, to get Republican cooperation, did too little on stimulus, financial reform and health care and thus did not get the results he wanted as in the stimulus or the ability to tout his achievement such as in financial reform and health care. Indeed Democrats ran away from those bills in the election.

It is as if you were a contractor and spent a year building a huge house and yet did not advertise that when you sought to be hired for your next job.

Others would argue that Obama's left leaning agenda just is not palatable to what is repeatedly stated to be a center right country.

I think the failure is widespread. First and foremost the economy was a wreck when he took office. Obama won a clear majority and the public was on his side. FDR when he took office in the throes of the Depression did not try to work with the right, Ronald Reagan raised taxes when he took over California in 1966 knowing that in that first year everything he did he could blame on having to fix the previous administrations mistakes.

Simply put the stimulus was too small. Much too small. Republicans who lined up against it should have been called out. If they had used the filibuster on a larger amount he should have gone on television and stated his case. He would have won.

The health care bill was a wreck because he did not participate until the very end and by then the words death panel and government takeover were in the lexicon. Orchestrated resistance from the right scared some Democrats and it simply took too long. If he wanted this to be his signature achievement he should have sold it. Again how hard would it have been to go on TV and in a populist measure say that all Americans should have the same access members of Congress have. Or to blame insurance companies. I have said in my own statements that anything the insurance companies are against must be good for the average citizen. This is true. This could have been an easy populist sell but he lost control of his message.

Perhaps for me the biggest disappointment was the financial reform bill. The bill that passed was gutted. Too big too fail still exists. Paul Volckers suggestions were not heeded. How easy could it have been to come out as a populist standing against Wall Street who caused this whole economic downturn. The bonuses after the fact and yet the Republicans rallied against the financial reform bill saying it would allow more bailouts. Again, message stolen. The bill is lukewarm and useless.

Obama is likable but one gets the sense that he has never dealt with adversity in the political arena. I told a Democratic friend of mine that I had doubts about how he would do against a strong Congress and it seems to be the case.

Now he has lost his majority and will have to negotiate or let nothing happen. The time for being tough was when he had his mandate. He did not need Republicans and he could in those first six months have gone over the Republicans head to the American people. He did not.

The only thing that prevents me from considering him a likely one term President is that we do not know how the whole Republican party schism that is pending with the Tea Party will play out. Sarah Palin getting the nomination seems insane but were that to happen one has to assume that independents would flock to Obama and her nomination would energize the left.

But a strong Republican governor would seem to be a more likely candidate and the electoral math for Obama is very poor indeed.


A final note. It is only two years in and things can change. However ex presidents usually have a voice. Jimmy Carter has been an envoy around the world. Reagan was revered by his party. Bush the senior has done many good things and Bill Clinton is still the Rock Star of the Democratic party. As I think about Obama I cannot think anyone would ever value his opinion on political matters except as an example of what not to do.

Is their time to fix this. Yes. But I do wonder if he has the political instincts and just as important the political will to do so.